Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Antwerp's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 46% versus Charleroi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 48% | Charleroi 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.74 xG and Charleroi 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.270 / defence 0.626 | Charleroi attack 0.922 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.286. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.626 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Antwerp games / 62 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 30% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Antwerp 1.74 / Charleroi 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.270 / def 0.626 | Charleroi attack 0.922 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Charleroi xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 61% chance of winning, Charleroi a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.92x) against Antwerp's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.15
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.48
0.74
Charleroi xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
3%
37.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.74 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 38W 13D 17L from 68 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 25L across 68 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 20W 7D 7L from 34 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 14W 8D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.47 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 38W 13D 17L in their last 68 games (1.87 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 28W 15D 25L in their last 68 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.97 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Charleroi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Antwerp and 71% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Antwerp's recent matches and 56% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antwerp's matches and 71% of Charleroi's.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 0-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.74 xG and Charleroi 0.74 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.27 / defence 0.63 against Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 61% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 15%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 48%, Charleroi 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.