Anderlecht 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lotto Park plays host to Anderlecht versus Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Thursday 12 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Anderlecht have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 7W 2D 1L at Lotto Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park.
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Anderlecht's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 54% versus Antwerp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 57% | Antwerp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.60 xG and Antwerp 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.343 / defence 0.958 | Antwerp attack 0.840 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.308. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Anderlecht games / 34 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 50% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 25%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Antwerp 4.00. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Anderlecht 40% | Antwerp 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Thursday 12 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 50% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Anderlecht 1.60 / Antwerp 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.343 / def 0.958 | Antwerp attack 0.840 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Antwerp xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Antwerp kick off?
Anderlecht vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 12 May 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Anderlecht 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Anderlecht vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Antwerp part of?
Anderlecht vs Antwerp is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 50% chance of winning, Antwerp a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Anderlecht and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Antwerp in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Anderlecht's attack rating (1.34) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.84x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.01
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.65
1.05
Antwerp xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.05 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 19W 11D 7L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 19W 7D 11L from 37 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.73 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (10W 6D 2L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 10W 2D 6L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.49 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 19W 11D 7L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 19W 7D 11L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Antwerp away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Antwerp in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Anderlecht
4
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 5, Antwerp have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Antwerp 2-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 61%, Antwerp 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Anderlecht) and 44% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antwerp in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Anderlecht's games and 56% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Anderlecht's recent games and 44% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Antwerp tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Antwerp 2-1 at Lotto Park, Championship Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.60 xG and Antwerp 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Antwerp attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 50% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 25%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 57%, Antwerp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.84 PPG, Antwerp 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.