Standard Liège II 0-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RSC Anderlecht II (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Standard Liège II face RSC Anderlecht II.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Standard Liège II host RSC Anderlecht II at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie in Challenger Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Standard Liège II stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Standard Liège II at home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, RSC Anderlecht II have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, RSC Anderlecht II have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RSC Anderlecht II — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
RSC Anderlecht II have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Standard Liège II. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Standard Liège II 0–3 RSC Anderlecht II — a RSC Anderlecht II win.
The H2H data backs the away side. RSC Anderlecht II have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liège II in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 56% versus RSC Anderlecht II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 62% | RSC Anderlecht II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.13 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.878 / defence 1.391 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.991 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.442. Standard Liège II's defence rating of 1.391 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RSC Anderlecht II's projected output up. Data: built from Standard Liège II's last 41 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 40.
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 21% | Draw 22% | RSC Anderlecht II 57%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 4.74 | Draw 4.64 | RSC Anderlecht II 1.74. The model has a clear lean to RSC Anderlecht II (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RSC Anderlecht II at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Standard Liège II's last 10 home games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Standard Liège II 50% (last 10 home games) | RSC Anderlecht II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade de la Cité de l'Oie • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 21% | Draw 22% | RSC Anderlecht II 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Standard Liège II 1.13 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.878 / def 1.391 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.991 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.99
RSC Anderlecht II xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II FAQs
What time does Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Standard Liège II 0 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 21% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liège II's attack rating (0.88) and RSC Anderlecht II's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Standard Liège II's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Standard Liège II's last 41 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
21%
4.74
22%
4.64
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
3.11
1.99
RSC Anderlecht II xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
14%
7.30
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
3%
34.60
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.99 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liège II come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 11D 29L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, RSC Anderlecht II sit at 1.22 PPG from 50 outings (15W 16D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
RSC Anderlecht II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Standard Liège II's home form reads 6W 7D 12L across their last 25 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, RSC Anderlecht II have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 25 away games (11W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RSC Anderlecht II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liège II are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.44 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Standard Liège II (Home) vs RSC Anderlecht II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liège II
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 10W 11D 29L in their last 50 games (0.82 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 15W 16D 19L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 1.00 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
RSC Anderlecht II have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Nov 2022, when RSC Anderlecht II won RSC Anderlecht II 3-0 Standard Liège II.
Standard Liège II's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Standard Liège II
0
Draws
4
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liège II have won 0, RSC Anderlecht II have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2024: Standard Liège II 0-1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II?
RSC Anderlecht II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liège II 64%, RSC Anderlecht II 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Standard Liège II and 60% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liège II have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liège II vs RSC Anderlecht II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Standard Liège II's games and 64% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Standard Liège II's matches and 60% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do Standard Liège II and RSC Anderlecht II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Standard Liège II's recent matches and 72% of RSC Anderlecht II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RSC Anderlecht II edge out Standard Liège II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RSC Anderlecht II beat Standard Liège II 0-1 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.13 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.99 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liège II fell 1.1 short of their projected output. RSC Anderlecht II landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.88 / defence 1.39 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 21% | Draw 22% | RSC Anderlecht II 57%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 62%, RSC Anderlecht II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RSC Anderlecht II arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.