Standard Liège II 1-2 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Standard Liège II face Francs Borains.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Cité de l'Oie plays host to Standard Liège II versus Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Current Form
Standard Liège II's record over their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Standard Liège II have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Francs Borains have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Francs Borains have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Standard Liège II, 1 for Francs Borains and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Standard Liège II 1–2 Francs Borains — a Francs Borains win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Standard Liège II — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 48% versus Francs Borains 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 67% | Francs Borains 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.34 xG and Francs Borains 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.809 / defence 1.308 | Francs Borains attack 0.812 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.471. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.373 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Standard Liège II's projected output up. Standard Liège II's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Francs Borains's projected output up. Data: built from Standard Liège II's last 43 games and Francs Borains's last 21.
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 33% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 43%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 3.07 | Draw 4.07 | Francs Borains 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Francs Borains are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Standard Liège II's last 10 home games and Francs Borains's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Standard Liège II 40% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade de la Cité de l'Oie • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 33% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Standard Liège II 1.34 / Francs Borains 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.809 / def 1.308 | Francs Borains attack 0.812 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Francs Borains xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Standard Liège II 1 - 2 Francs Borains.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains part of?
Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 33% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Standard Liège II and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Standard Liège II's attack at 0.81x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.81x) against Standard Liège II's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Standard Liège II's last 43 games and Francs Borains's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
33%
3.07
25%
4.07
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
2.90
1.56
Francs Borains xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.56 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Standard Liège II have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 5W 0D 16L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Francs Borains's form line: 6W 2D 13L from 21 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Standard Liège II against 0.95 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Standard Liège II have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 10 home games (3W 0D 7L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liège II are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
Standard Liège II (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liège II
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liège II and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 5W 0D 16L in their last 21 games (0.71 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 6W 2D 13L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Francs Borains away?
Standard Liège II's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 0.90 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Standard Liège II and Francs Borains, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Standard Liège II
0
Draws
2
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Francs Borains?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liège II have won 0, Francs Borains have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Standard Liège II 1-2 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liège II 40%, Francs Borains 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Standard Liège II and 60% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liège II have failed to score in 50% of games; Francs Borains in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liège II and Francs Borains matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Standard Liège II's recent matches and 40% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Standard Liège II and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Standard Liège II's matches and 60% of Francs Borains's.
Do Standard Liège II and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Standard Liège II's recent matches and 80% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Francs Borains edge out Standard Liège II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Standard Liège II 1-2 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.34 xG and Francs Borains 1.56 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.81 / defence 1.31 against Francs Borains attack 0.81 / defence 1.37, drawn from 43/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 33% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 43%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 67%, Francs Borains 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liège II 0.71 PPG, Francs Borains 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.