Standard Liège II 1-1 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior Virton at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Standard Liège II face Excelsior Virton.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liège II versus Excelsior Virton in Challenger Pro League (Relegation Round - 9). Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Standard Liège II have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Standard Liège II's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Excelsior Virton's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Excelsior Virton away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Standard Liège II's last 10 home games and Excelsior Virton's last 10 away games) — Standard Liège II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Excelsior Virton in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Standard Liège II edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Standard Liège II 0–1 Excelsior Virton — a Excelsior Virton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Standard Liège II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 57% versus Excelsior Virton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 57% | Excelsior Virton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.40 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.814 / defence 1.250 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.947 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.453. Standard Liège II's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Excelsior Virton's projected output up. Data: built from Standard Liège II's last 22 games and Excelsior Virton's last 50.
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 31% | Draw 23% | Excelsior Virton 45%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 3.20 | Draw 4.26 | Excelsior Virton 2.21. Excelsior Virton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior Virton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior Virton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Standard Liège II's last 10 home games and Excelsior Virton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Standard Liège II 60% (last 10 home games) | Excelsior Virton 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 31% | Draw 23% | Excelsior Virton 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Standard Liège II 1.40 / Excelsior Virton 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.814 / def 1.250 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.947 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Excelsior Virton xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton FAQs
What time does Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 5 May 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton?
Standard Liège II 1 - 1 Excelsior Virton.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton part of?
Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton is a Challenger Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 31% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Standard Liège II's attack rating (0.81) and Excelsior Virton's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior Virton's attack (0.95x) against Standard Liège II's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from Standard Liège II's last 22 games and Excelsior Virton's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
31%
3.20
23%
4.26
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
3.12
1.72
Excelsior Virton xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
6%
17.87
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.72 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liège II's recent record stands at 5W 11D 14L from 30 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Excelsior Virton, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 17L across 30 games — 0.70 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Standard Liège II against 0.70 for Excelsior Virton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Standard Liège II have managed 2W 7D 6L from their last 15 home games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior Virton's away record stands at 3W 4D 8L across their last 15 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liège II are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.93 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior Virton in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Current Season
Excelsior Virton
Current Season
Standard Liège II (Home) vs Excelsior Virton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liège II
Current Season
Excelsior Virton
Current Season
❓ Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 5W 11D 14L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 4W 9D 17L in their last 30 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Excelsior Virton away?
Standard Liège II's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 0.87 PPG; Excelsior Virton away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Standard Liège II
1
Draws
1
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liège II have won 2, Excelsior Virton have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2023: Standard Liège II 1-1 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton?
Standard Liège II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Standard Liège II, 80% for Excelsior Virton — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Standard Liège II and 73% for Excelsior Virton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liège II vs Excelsior Virton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Standard Liège II's games and 80% of Excelsior Virton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Standard Liège II's matches and 73% of Excelsior Virton's.
Do Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Standard Liège II's recent matches and 60% of Excelsior Virton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Relegation Round - 9, as Standard Liège II and Excelsior Virton drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.40 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.72 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 31% | Draw 23% | Excelsior Virton 45%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 57%, Excelsior Virton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liège II 0.87 PPG, Excelsior Virton 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.