SK Beveren 0-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethielstadion plays host to SK Beveren versus Zulte Waregem in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethielstadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethielstadion than their overall form suggests.
Zulte Waregem's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for SK Beveren, 1.60 for Zulte Waregem — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SK Beveren have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zulte Waregem in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 56% and Zulte Waregem 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 64% | Zulte Waregem 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.39 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.042 / defence 0.963 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.413 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.393. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.413 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 SK Beveren games / 7 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 28% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 49%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | Zulte Waregem 2.04. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Zulte Waregem 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 28% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG SK Beveren 1.39 / Zulte Waregem 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.042 / def 0.963 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.413 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Zulte Waregem xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
SK Beveren 0 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem part of?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 28% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.04) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.41x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 29/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
28%
3.55
22%
4.48
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.28
1.90
Zulte Waregem xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
15%
6.66
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
4%
23.63
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.90 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 21W 11D 7L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 9W 10D 20L from 39 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.37 PPG from 19 outings (14W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — SK Beveren are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.62 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 72%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 21W 11D 7L in their last 39 games (1.90 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Zulte Waregem away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.37 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.21 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when SK Beveren 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for SK Beveren, 68% for Zulte Waregem — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SK Beveren and 63% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of SK Beveren's games and 68% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SK Beveren's matches and 63% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat SK Beveren 0-3 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.39 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.90 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.41 / defence 1.08, drawn from 29/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 28% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 49%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 64%, Zulte Waregem 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Zulte Waregem winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.