SK Beveren 1-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SK Beveren face RSC Anderlecht II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RSC Anderlecht II make the trip to Freethielstadion to face SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
SK Beveren (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren at Freethielstadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethielstadion than their overall form suggests.
RSC Anderlecht II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 0.70 PPG lead over RSC Anderlecht II (1.20 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SK Beveren have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RSC Anderlecht II in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours SK Beveren, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against RSC Anderlecht II — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with SK Beveren winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SK Beveren and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
RSC Anderlecht II half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 47% versus RSC Anderlecht II 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 55% | RSC Anderlecht II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.60 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.950 / defence 0.950 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.931 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.295. RSC Anderlecht II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 SK Beveren games / 38 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 48% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 27%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | RSC Anderlecht II 3.70. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 48% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG SK Beveren 1.60 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.950 / def 0.950 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.931 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.15
RSC Anderlecht II xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
SK Beveren 1 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 48% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (6 meetings): SK Beveren 5W | Draws 1 | RSC Anderlecht II 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 0.95x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (0.93x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
48%
2.09
25%
4.02
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.74
1.15
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.15 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 9D 14L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RSC Anderlecht II sit at 1.00 PPG from 38 outings (9W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SK Beveren's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, RSC Anderlecht II have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.32 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.63 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 0-5 on 4 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SK Beveren
2
Draws
0
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 8, RSC Anderlecht II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 0-5 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 58%, RSC Anderlecht II 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (SK Beveren) and 53% (RSC Anderlecht II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play RSC Anderlecht II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SK Beveren's games and 63% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SK Beveren's matches and 53% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 9, as SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.60 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.15 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 48% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 27%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 55%, RSC Anderlecht II 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.