SK Beveren 0-1 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethielstadion plays host to SK Beveren versus Lokeren-Temse in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren at Freethielstadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lokeren-Temse's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Lokeren-Temse have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Lokeren-Temse have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG.
The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 1.17 PPG lead over Lokeren-Temse (1.50 vs 0.33) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lokeren-Temse half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 83% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (SK Beveren 50% | Lokeren-Temse 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 50% | Lokeren-Temse 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 2.02 xG and Lokeren-Temse 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.054 / defence 0.901 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.544 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.378. Lokeren-Temse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 SK Beveren games / 6 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 67% | Draw 23% | Lokeren-Temse 10%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | Lokeren-Temse 10.00. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Lokeren-Temse 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 67% | Draw 23% | Lokeren-Temse 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 44% | xG SK Beveren 2.02 / Lokeren-Temse 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.054 / def 0.901 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.544 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Lokeren-Temse xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse?
SK Beveren 0 - 1 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 67% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.05) and Lokeren-Temse's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lokeren-Temse's attack (0.54x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
67%
1.49
23%
4.37
10%
10.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.70
0.68
Lokeren-Temse xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
10.19
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
76.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.68 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 3D 1L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lokeren-Temse's form line: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lokeren-Temse.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SK Beveren are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 0.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.33 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 0.00 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Lokeren-Temse been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lokeren-Temse in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lokeren-Temse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse?
From 4 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 3, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (SK Beveren) and 0% (Lokeren-Temse) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SK Beveren) and 33% (Lokeren-Temse).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SK Beveren have failed to score in 33% of games; Lokeren-Temse in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lokeren-Temse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 0% of Lokeren-Temse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SK Beveren's recent games and 33% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lokeren-Temse defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse beat SK Beveren 0-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 2.02 xG and Lokeren-Temse 0.68 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.54 / defence 1.36, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 67% | Draw 23% | Lokeren-Temse 10%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Lokeren-Temse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 50%, Lokeren-Temse 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Lokeren-Temse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.