SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
K. Lierse S.K. travel to Freethielstadion to take on SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SK Beveren have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, SK Beveren have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SK Beveren are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 1.30 (K. Lierse S.K.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of SK Beveren: 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for K. Lierse S.K., with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended SK Beveren 3–1 K. Lierse S.K. — a SK Beveren win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SK Beveren and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 46% versus K. Lierse S.K. 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 54% | K. Lierse S.K. 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.72 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.954 / defence 0.738 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.869 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.431. SK Beveren have a tight defence (rating 0.738), which is pulling K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output down. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 44 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 44.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 56% | Draw 24% | K. Lierse S.K. 20%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.78 | Draw 4.21 | K. Lierse S.K. 5.02. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (SK Beveren 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 40% (last 10 home games) | K. Lierse S.K. 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 56% | Draw 24% | K. Lierse S.K. 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG SK Beveren 1.72 / K. Lierse S.K. 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.954 / def 0.738 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.869 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.92
K. Lierse S.K. xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 December 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren 1 - 0 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 56% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SK Beveren's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 44 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.21
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.64
0.92
K. Lierse S.K. xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
28.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.92 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 17W 11D 16L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 15W 9D 20L from 44 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.41 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 21 home games (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 5W 5D 11L from their last 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.52 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 66%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs K. Lierse S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.67 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.95 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or K. Lierse S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, K. Lierse S.K. in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won SK Beveren 5-0 K. Lierse S.K..
SK Beveren's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
SK Beveren
1
Draws
0
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 9, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 52%, K. Lierse S.K. 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SK Beveren and 67% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 29% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 57% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SK Beveren's matches and 67% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 95% of K. Lierse S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out K. Lierse S.K. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.72 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.92 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.95 / defence 0.74 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 56% | Draw 24% | K. Lierse S.K. 20%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 54%, K. Lierse S.K. 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.41 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.