SK Beveren 3-1 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SK Beveren face Excelsior Virton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Excelsior Virton travel to Freethielstadion to take on SK Beveren. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren at Freethielstadion this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior Virton stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Excelsior Virton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of SK Beveren: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Excelsior Virton, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 4–0 with SK Beveren winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SK Beveren and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Excelsior Virton in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 54% versus Excelsior Virton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Excelsior Virton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.68 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.083 / defence 1.166 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.709 / defence 1.570. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.323. Excelsior Virton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.570 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 SK Beveren games / 22 Excelsior Virton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 24% | Excelsior Virton 25%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Excelsior Virton 4.00. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Excelsior Virton 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 24% | Excelsior Virton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG SK Beveren 1.68 / Excelsior Virton 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.083 / def 1.166 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.709 / def 1.570 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Excelsior Virton xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
SK Beveren 3 - 1 Excelsior Virton.
Where is SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton part of?
SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 51% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton?
Record (3 meetings): SK Beveren 3W | Draws 0 | Excelsior Virton 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.08) and Excelsior Virton's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior Virton's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.14
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.78
1.09
Excelsior Virton xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
5%
21.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.09 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 10W 3D 9L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior Virton, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 14L across 22 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior Virton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 5W 0D 6L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior Virton's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.77 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Excelsior Virton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 10W 3D 9L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Excelsior Virton away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.36 PPG; Excelsior Virton away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jan 2022, when SK Beveren won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Excelsior Virton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
2
Draws
0
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton?
From 6 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Excelsior Virton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2022, when Excelsior Virton 0-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 54%, Excelsior Virton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SK Beveren) and 54% (Excelsior Virton).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 36% of games; Excelsior Virton in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Excelsior Virton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 54% of Excelsior Virton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of SK Beveren's recent games and 54% of Excelsior Virton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Excelsior Virton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Excelsior Virton 3-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.68 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.09 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.08 / defence 1.17 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.71 / defence 1.57, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 24% | Excelsior Virton 25%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 64%, Excelsior Virton 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.