SK Beveren 3-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host AS Eupen at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SK Beveren stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SK Beveren's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
AS Eupen — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for SK Beveren, 0 for AS Eupen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2024, ended SK Beveren 2–2 AS Eupen — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 45% versus AS Eupen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 52% | AS Eupen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.54 xG and AS Eupen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.051 / defence 0.893 | AS Eupen attack 0.813 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.294. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 56 games and AS Eupen's last 25.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 23%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.95 | Draw 3.90 | AS Eupen 4.34. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 30% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs AS Eupen | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG SK Beveren 1.54 / AS Eupen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.051 / def 0.893 | AS Eupen attack 0.813 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.94
AS Eupen xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs AS Eupen FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs AS Eupen kick off?
SK Beveren vs AS Eupen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 4 April 2025 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
SK Beveren 3 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is SK Beveren vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs AS Eupen part of?
SK Beveren vs AS Eupen is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 51% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SK Beveren and AS Eupen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will SK Beveren vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against AS Eupen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 56 games and AS Eupen's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.90
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.48
0.94
AS Eupen xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
5%
20.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs AS Eupen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.94 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 25W 14D 17L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
AS Eupen's form line: 12W 9D 35L from 56 games, 0.80 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 7D 7L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 5D 18L from their last 27 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.00 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs AS Eupen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs AS Eupen Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 12W 9D 35L in their last 56 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or AS Eupen away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.70 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.63 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2025, when SK Beveren won SK Beveren 3-0 AS Eupen.
SK Beveren's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
2
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs AS Eupen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and AS Eupen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 2, AS Eupen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and AS Eupen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: AS Eupen 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and AS Eupen?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 52%, AS Eupen 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SK Beveren) and 56% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 30% of games; AS Eupen in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs AS Eupen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and AS Eupen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 41% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Beveren and AS Eupen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SK Beveren's matches and 56% of AS Eupen's.
Do SK Beveren and AS Eupen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 74% of AS Eupen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat AS Eupen 3-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.54 xG and AS Eupen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against AS Eupen attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 23%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 52%, AS Eupen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Eupen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.