RWDM 3-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as RWDM welcome K. Lierse S.K. to Edmond Machtens-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, RWDM have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's home record at Edmond Machtens-Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Edmond Machtens-Stadion this season.
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
RWDM carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RWDM, 0 for K. Lierse S.K. and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with RWDM winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
RWDM trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 50% and K. Lierse S.K. 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 45% | K. Lierse S.K. 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.16 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.029 / defence 1.035 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.863 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.294. Data: 21 RWDM games / 20 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 36% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 35%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RWDM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: RWDM 50% | K. Lierse S.K. 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Edmond Machtens-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 36% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG RWDM 1.16 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.029 / def 1.035 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.863 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: RWDM (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.16
K. Lierse S.K. xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM 3 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What competition is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 36% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (1 meetings): RWDM 1W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. in?
RWDM (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RWDM's attack at 1.03x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.47
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.32
1.16
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for RWDM and 1.16 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RWDM come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 5D 6L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (6W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RWDM on 1.60 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
RWDM's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.60 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
RWDM are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 75%.
Defensively: RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 6W 8D 6L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
RWDM's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.20 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.20 PPG.
Have RWDM or K. Lierse S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, K. Lierse S.K. in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when RWDM won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RWDM's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
RWDM
2
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, RWDM have won 7, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when RWDM 1-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 50%, K. Lierse S.K. 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for RWDM and 70% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of RWDM's games and 70% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RWDM's matches and 70% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat K. Lierse S.K. 3-1 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.16 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 36% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 35%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 45%, K. Lierse S.K. 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RWDM 1.60 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RWDM win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.