RWDM 3-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours RWDM (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RWDM face K. Lierse S.K..
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Promotion Round - 1 as RWDM welcome K. Lierse S.K. to Edmond Machtensstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, RWDM have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's home record at Edmond Machtensstadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
RWDM carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: RWDM have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while K. Lierse S.K. have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with RWDM winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RWDM and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
RWDM trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 54% and K. Lierse S.K. 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 54% | K. Lierse S.K. 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 2.13 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.302 / defence 0.840 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.018 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.453. RWDM carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 RWDM games / 50 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 58% | Draw 21% | K. Lierse S.K. 22%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | K. Lierse S.K. 4.55. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Round - 1 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 58% | Draw 21% | K. Lierse S.K. 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG RWDM 2.13 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.302 / def 0.840 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.018 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: RWDM (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.24
K. Lierse S.K. xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM 3 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Promotion Round - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 58% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (4 meetings): RWDM 4W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. in?
RWDM (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RWDM's attack at 1.30x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.85
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
RWDM xG
Total xG
3.37
1.24
K. Lierse S.K. xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
3%
38.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for RWDM and 1.24 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RWDM come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 11D 12L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.44 PPG from 50 outings (20W 12D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
RWDM's home form reads 14W 5D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RWDM are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.62 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 games (1.84 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 20W 12D 18L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
RWDM's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.88 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.20 PPG.
Have RWDM or K. Lierse S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, K. Lierse S.K. in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when RWDM won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RWDM's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
RWDM
2
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, RWDM have won 7, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when RWDM 1-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 52%, K. Lierse S.K. 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for RWDM and 68% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of RWDM's games and 64% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of RWDM's matches and 68% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat K. Lierse S.K. 3-1 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Promotion Round - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 2.13 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.30 / defence 0.84 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 58% | Draw 21% | K. Lierse S.K. 22%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 54%, K. Lierse S.K. 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.