Royal Excel Mouscron 1-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Royal Excel Mouscron at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Royal Excel Mouscron host Deinze at Stade Le Canonnier in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Royal Excel Mouscron stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Royal Excel Mouscron's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Le Canonnier this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Royal Excel Mouscron at 1.50 PPG versus Deinze's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Royal Excel Mouscron register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Deinze in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Royal Excel Mouscron, 1 for Deinze and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Royal Excel Mouscron in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Royal Excel Mouscron 46% versus Deinze 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Royal Excel Mouscron 50% | Deinze 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Royal Excel Mouscron 1.13 xG and Deinze 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.969 / defence 0.954 | Deinze attack 0.948 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 1.237. Data: 24 Royal Excel Mouscron games / 24 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 36% | Draw 29% | Deinze 35%. Fair-value odds: Royal Excel Mouscron 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Deinze 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Royal Excel Mouscron at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Royal Excel Mouscron offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Royal Excel Mouscron 60% | Deinze 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Le Canonnier • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 36% | Draw 29% | Deinze 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Royal Excel Mouscron 1.13 / Deinze 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.969 / def 0.954 | Deinze attack 0.948 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.004 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Royal Excel Mouscron (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Deinze xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze kick off?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Stade Le Canonnier.
What was the final score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Royal Excel Mouscron 1 - 2 Deinze.
Where is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Le Canonnier.
What competition is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze part of?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Royal Excel Mouscron a 36% chance of winning, Deinze a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Royal Excel Mouscron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze?
Record (3 meetings): Royal Excel Mouscron 1W | Draws 1 | Deinze 1W.
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze in?
Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Deinze (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Royal Excel Mouscron's attack at 0.97x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Royal Excel Mouscron's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Royal Excel Mouscron Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.48
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Total xG
2.25
1.12
Deinze xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Royal Excel Mouscron and 1.12 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Royal Excel Mouscron come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 6D 10L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (7W 12D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Royal Excel Mouscron on 1.25 PPG, Deinze on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Royal Excel Mouscron's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (3W 6D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Royal Excel Mouscron are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze in coming into this match?
Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Deinze have gone 7W 12D 5L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Royal Excel Mouscron at home or Deinze away?
Royal Excel Mouscron's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Royal Excel Mouscron at home: 1.50 PPG; Deinze away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Royal Excel Mouscron's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Royal Excel Mouscron
1
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze?
From 4 meetings on record, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 1, Deinze have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2022, when Royal Excel Mouscron 1-2 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Royal Excel Mouscron 50%, Deinze 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Royal Excel Mouscron) and 50% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Royal Excel Mouscron have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Royal Excel Mouscron home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Royal Excel Mouscron play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's recent matches and 58% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's recent games and 50% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze tend to score early?
Royal Excel Mouscron have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Deinze in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deinze defy the odds to beat Royal Excel Mouscron 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Royal Excel Mouscron 1-2 at Stade Le Canonnier, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Royal Excel Mouscron 1.13 xG and Deinze 1.12 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Deinze outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Deinze attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Royal Excel Mouscron 36% | Draw 29% | Deinze 35%, with Royal Excel Mouscron to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Deinze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Royal Excel Mouscron 50%, Deinze 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Royal Excel Mouscron 1.25 PPG, Deinze 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.