Patro Eisden 4-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Patro Eisden host Lommel United at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Patro Eisden 1.90 PPG, Lommel United 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for Lommel United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 44% versus Lommel United 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 56% | Lommel United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 2.03 xG and Lommel United 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.222 / defence 0.948 | Lommel United attack 1.247 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.450. Lommel United have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Patro Eisden games / 43 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 21% | Lommel United 33%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | Lommel United 3.03. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 60% | Lommel United 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 21% | Lommel United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Patro Eisden 2.03 / Lommel United 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.222 / def 0.948 | Lommel United attack 1.247 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Lommel United xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Lommel United kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Lommel United kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Patro Eisden 4 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United part of?
Patro Eisden vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 46% chance of winning, Lommel United a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Patro Eisden and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
Record (2 meetings): Patro Eisden 2W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Lommel United in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Patro Eisden's attack rating (1.22) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
46%
2.19
21%
4.71
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
3.75
1.71
Lommel United xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
4%
23.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.71 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 20W 15D 10L from 45 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 13L across 45 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Patro Eisden on 1.67 PPG, Lommel United on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Patro Eisden have managed 12W 5D 6L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 9W 6D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.64 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 67%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 20W 15D 10L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 18W 14D 13L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Lommel United away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.78 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lommel United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and Lommel United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
1
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Lommel United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Patro Eisden at 56%, Lommel United at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Patro Eisden and 78% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Patro Eisden's games and 78% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Patro Eisden's matches and 78% of Lommel United's.
Do Patro Eisden and Lommel United tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Lommel United 4-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 2.03 xG and Lommel United 1.71 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Lommel United attack 1.25 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 21% | Lommel United 33%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 56%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lommel United's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.67 PPG, Lommel United 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.