Patro Eisden 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
KRC Genk II travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Patro Eisden have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Patro Eisden at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KRC Genk II — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Patro Eisden's games and 60% of KRC Genk II's (from Patro Eisden's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Patro Eisden have won 2, KRC Genk II 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended Patro Eisden 3–1 KRC Genk II — a Patro Eisden win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
KRC Genk II trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 48% versus KRC Genk II 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Patro Eisden 58% | KRC Genk II 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 2.96 xG and KRC Genk II 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.505 / defence 0.997 | KRC Genk II attack 0.839 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.374. Patro Eisden carry an above-average attack rating of 1.505 — their 2.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.431 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Patro Eisden's projected output up. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 50 games and KRC Genk II's last 50.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 74% | Draw 15% | KRC Genk II 12%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 1.35 | Draw 6.89 | KRC Genk II 8.70. The model has a clear lean to Patro Eisden (74%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.96 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Patro Eisden's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Patro Eisden 70% (last 10 home games) | KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 74% | Draw 15% | KRC Genk II 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Patro Eisden 2.96 / KRC Genk II 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.505 / def 0.997 | KRC Genk II attack 0.839 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.15
KRC Genk II xG
65%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II FAQs
What time does Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II part of?
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 74% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.96. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Patro Eisden's last 50 games and KRC Genk II's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.89
12%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
4.11
1.15
KRC Genk II xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
8.70
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
5%
19.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
1%
168.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.15 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 23W 16D 11L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
KRC Genk II's form line: 13W 11D 26L from 50 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 25 home games (13W 5D 7L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 5W 6D 14L from their last 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.44 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 70%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
Patro Eisden (Home) vs KRC Genk II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Patro Eisden
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II Form FAQs
What form are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 23W 16D 11L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or KRC Genk II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.76 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won KRC Genk II 1-4 Patro Eisden.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Patro Eisden
2
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Patro Eisden have won 5, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Patro Eisden 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 56%, KRC Genk II 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Patro Eisden and 72% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Patro Eisden's games and 72% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Patro Eisden's matches and 72% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 88% of KRC Genk II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 2.96 xG and KRC Genk II 1.15 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Patro Eisden fell 2.0 short of their projected output. KRC Genk II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.50 / defence 1.00 against KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 1.43, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 74% | Draw 15% | KRC Genk II 12%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 58%, KRC Genk II 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.