Oostende 0-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oostende face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oostende host Dender at Diaz Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oostende stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Oostende have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Dender have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dender away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oostende 1.60 PPG, Dender 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Oostende have won 0, Dender 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Oostende 1–1 Dender — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oostende trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dender trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 52% versus Dender 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 57% | Dender 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 0.93 xG and Dender 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.665 / defence 1.260 | Dender attack 1.161 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.446. Oostende's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Oostende's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dender's projected output up. Data: built from Oostende's last 24 games and Dender's last 46.
Result probabilities: Oostende 15% | Draw 20% | Dender 64%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 6.49 | Draw 4.94 | Dender 1.55. The model has a clear lean to Dender (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Oostende's last 10 home games and Dender's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oostende 40% (last 10 home games) | Dender 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 15% | Draw 20% | Dender 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Oostende 0.93 / Dender 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.665 / def 1.260 | Dender attack 1.161 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Dender (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Dender xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oostende vs Dender FAQs
What time does Oostende vs Dender kick off?
Oostende vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Dender?
Oostende 0 - 1 Dender.
Where is Oostende vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Dender part of?
Oostende vs Dender is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 15% chance of winning, Dender a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Oostende and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Oostende vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.67) and Dender's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Oostende's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oostende's last 24 games and Dender's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
15%
6.49
20%
4.94
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Oostende xG
Total xG
3.05
2.12
Dender xG
6.49
15%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
12%
8.30
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
2%
53.85
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oostende vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Oostende and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Oostende and 2.12 for Dender, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oostende come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 13D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Dender sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (21W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Dender carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Oostende — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Oostende's home form reads 6W 4D 18L across their last 28 home games, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oostende are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.48 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Dender
Blended
Oostende (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oostende
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Oostende vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Oostende and Dender in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 14W 13D 29L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Dender have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 0.79 PPG; Dender away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oostende
1
Draws
1
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Oostende vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Dender?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Oostende have won 0, Dender have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Oostende and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Oostende 0-1 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 50%, Dender 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oostende) and 43% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Oostende have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oostende vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oostende and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Oostende's games and 64% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Oostende and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oostende's recent games and 43% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oostende and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Oostende's recent matches and 71% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dender edge out Oostende 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Oostende 0-1 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 0.93 xG and Dender 2.12 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oostende fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Dender attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 24/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 15% | Draw 20% | Dender 64%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 57%, Dender 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dender's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.