Olympic Charleroi 0-2 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympic Charleroi host RWDM at Stade de la Neuville in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Olympic Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Neuville, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L this season (10 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RWDM — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RWDM — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, RWDM 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
RWDM in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 48% versus RWDM 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 56% | RWDM 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.66 xG and RWDM 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.516 / defence 1.384 | RWDM attack 0.911 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.386. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.516 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Olympic Charleroi games / 55 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | RWDM 64%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | RWDM 1.56. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 30% | RWDM 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | RWDM 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 40% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.66 / RWDM 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.516 / def 1.384 | RWDM attack 0.911 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: RWDM (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.75
RWDM xG
40%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM?
Olympic Charleroi 0 - 2 RWDM.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 14% chance of winning, RWDM a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and RWDM?
Record (1 meetings): Olympic Charleroi 0W | Draws 1 | RWDM 0W.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and RWDM in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. RWDM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympic Charleroi's attack at 0.52x the league average against RWDM's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Olympic Charleroi's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.8%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
14%
7.40
23%
4.39
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.40
1.75
RWDM xG
7.40
14%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
2%
42.44
33%
3.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 15.8 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.75 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympic Charleroi's recent record stands at 3W 7D 15L from 25 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 11L across 25 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Olympic Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Olympic Charleroi have managed 0W 2D 10L from 12 games — 0.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.64 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
RWDM's away record stands at 4W 4D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.48 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and RWDM in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 7D 15L in their last 25 games (0.64 PPG), while RWDM have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.17 PPG; RWDM away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Olympic Charleroi
1
Draws
1
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and RWDM?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, RWDM have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Olympic Charleroi 0-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Olympic Charleroi and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
RWDM see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympic Charleroi 33%, RWDM 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Olympic Charleroi) and 42% (RWDM).
On the defensive side: RWDM in 33%; Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play RWDM?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 50% of RWDM's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Olympic Charleroi's recent games and 42% of RWDM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympic Charleroi and RWDM tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RWDM in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Olympic Charleroi 0-2 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.66 xG and RWDM 1.75 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.52 / defence 1.38 against RWDM attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | RWDM 64%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 56%, RWDM 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RWDM's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. RWDM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.