Olympic Charleroi 0-1 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lokeren-Temse travel to Stade de la Neuville to take on Olympic Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympic Charleroi — All Games: 0W 1D 6L from 7 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.14 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.29 goals per game and conceding 2.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.86 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympic Charleroi have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympic Charleroi's home record at Stade de la Neuville: 0W 0D 4L from 4 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lokeren-Temse stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Lokeren-Temse have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Olympic Charleroi 0.14 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Olympic Charleroi in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Lokeren-Temse in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 29% versus Lokeren-Temse 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 71% | Lokeren-Temse 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.73 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.597 / defence 1.616 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.765 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.378. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Olympic Charleroi games / 37 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 15% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 60%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 6.67 | Draw 4.00 | Lokeren-Temse 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Lokeren-Temse (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lokeren-Temse are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 25% | Lokeren-Temse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 15% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.73 / Lokeren-Temse 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.597 / def 1.616 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.765 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Lokeren-Temse xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse?
Olympic Charleroi 0 - 1 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 15% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 60% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.29 / GA 2.86 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympic Charleroi's attack at 0.60x the league average against Lokeren-Temse's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lokeren-Temse's attack versus Olympic Charleroi's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
15%
6.66
25%
3.98
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.44
1.70
Lokeren-Temse xG
6.66
15%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
3%
36.55
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.70 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympic Charleroi's recent record stands at 0W 1D 6L from 7 games, a 0.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lokeren-Temse, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 5L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lokeren-Temse by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Olympic Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Olympic Charleroi have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lokeren-Temse's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lokeren-Temse's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympic Charleroi have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Early Season
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 games (0.14 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Olympic Charleroi's home record (0.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.00 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Olympic Charleroi
1
Draws
1
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 1-1 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Lokeren-Temse see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Olympic Charleroi 0% BTTS, Lokeren-Temse 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Olympic Charleroi) and 33% (Lokeren-Temse).
On the defensive side: Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 100% of games; Lokeren-Temse in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play Lokeren-Temse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 33% of Lokeren-Temse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Olympic Charleroi's recent games and 33% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympic Charleroi and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lokeren-Temse edge out Olympic Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse beat Olympic Charleroi 0-1 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.73 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.70 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.60 / defence 1.62 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 15% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 60%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 71%, Lokeren-Temse 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 0.57 PPG against 0.14. Form held, and they took the win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.