Lommel United 0-2 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lommel United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. meet at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's home record at Soevereinstadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Lommel United against 1.40 for K. Lierse S.K.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lommel United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, K. Lierse S.K. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lommel United, 2 for K. Lierse S.K. and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lommel United — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 57% and K. Lierse S.K. 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 63% | K. Lierse S.K. 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.69 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.905 / defence 1.046 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.984 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.448. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Lommel United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Lommel United games / 49 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 43% | Draw 23% | K. Lierse S.K. 34%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 43% | Draw 23% | K. Lierse S.K. 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Lommel United 1.69 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.905 / def 1.046 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.984 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.49
K. Lierse S.K. xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Lommel United 0 - 2 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 43% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (3 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 2W.
What form are Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.91x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.98x) against Lommel United's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.28
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Lommel United xG
Total xG
3.18
1.49
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.49 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lommel United come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 10D 20L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.41 PPG from 49 outings (19W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Lommel United against 1.41 for K. Lierse S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lommel United's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.61 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 19W 12D 18L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Lommel United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.33 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lommel United
2
Draws
4
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 4, K. Lierse S.K. have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Lommel United 4-3 K. Lierse S.K..
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 58%, K. Lierse S.K. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Lommel United and 71% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lommel United's games and 67% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lommel United's matches and 71% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Lommel United 0-2 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.69 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.49 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lommel United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 43% | Draw 23% | K. Lierse S.K. 34%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 63%, K. Lierse S.K. 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.37 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.