Lokeren-Temse 1-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Daknamstadion to face Lokeren-Temse in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Lokeren-Temse (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Daknamstadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SK Beveren have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SK Beveren are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lokeren-Temse register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, SK Beveren in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lokeren-Temse lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with SK Beveren winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lokeren-Temse half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 55% versus SK Beveren 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 46% | SK Beveren 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.12 xG and SK Beveren 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.999 / defence 1.096 | SK Beveren attack 1.543 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.376. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.543 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Lokeren-Temse games / 54 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 17% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 64%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | SK Beveren 1.56. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 80% | SK Beveren 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 17% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.12 / SK Beveren 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.999 / def 1.096 | SK Beveren attack 1.543 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
2.33
SK Beveren xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Lokeren-Temse 1 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 17% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 64% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren?
Record (3 meetings): Lokeren-Temse 1W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 2W.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 1.00x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.54x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
17%
5.92
19%
5.34
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
3.45
2.33
SK Beveren xG
5.92
17%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
10%
10.27
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
2%
60.83
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 2.33 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Lokeren-Temse have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 21W 16D 19L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 36W 12D 8L from 56 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lokeren-Temse.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lokeren-Temse have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 17W 6D 5L from 28 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.79 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 36W 12D 8L in their last 56 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.25 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Lokeren-Temse or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lokeren-Temse
0
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, SK Beveren have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 54%, SK Beveren 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lokeren-Temse) and 57% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 39%; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 50% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 57% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Lokeren-Temse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lokeren-Temse 1-2 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.12 xG and SK Beveren 2.33 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against SK Beveren attack 1.54 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 17% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 64%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 46%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.