Lokeren-Temse 0-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Lokeren-Temse welcome Beerschot VA to Daknamstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Daknamstadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daknamstadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Lokeren-Temse have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lokeren-Temse, 1 for Beerschot VA and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Beerschot VA winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lokeren-Temse in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 50% versus Beerschot VA 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 46% | Beerschot VA 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.84 xG and Beerschot VA 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.116 / defence 1.149 | Beerschot VA attack 0.970 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.370. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Lokeren-Temse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Lokeren-Temse games / 19 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 45% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 32%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Beerschot VA 3.12. Lokeren-Temse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokeren-Temse at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 80% | Beerschot VA 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 45% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.84 / Beerschot VA 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.116 / def 1.149 | Beerschot VA attack 0.970 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Beerschot VA xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Lokeren-Temse 0 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 45% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA?
Record (1 meetings): Lokeren-Temse 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 1.12x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Lokeren-Temse's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
45%
2.21
22%
4.45
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
3.37
1.53
Beerschot VA xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
5%
19.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.53 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lokeren-Temse's recent record stands at 20W 13D 19L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 25L across 52 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lokeren-Temse on 1.40 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lokeren-Temse have managed 8W 9D 8L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 6W 3D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokeren-Temse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.23 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 20W 13D 19L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 16W 11D 25L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or Beerschot VA away?
Lokeren-Temse's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.32 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lokeren-Temse
1
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA?
From 2 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 0-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 52%, Beerschot VA 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lokeren-Temse) and 60% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 28% of games; Beerschot VA in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 52% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 60% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lokeren-Temse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 21, as Lokeren-Temse and Beerschot VA drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.84 xG and Beerschot VA 1.53 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.12 / defence 1.15 against Beerschot VA attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 45% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 32%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 46%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 1.40 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.