KRC Genk II 1-1 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KRC Genk II face Standard Liège II.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II meet at Cegeka Arena in Challenger Pro League (Relegation Round - 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form
KRC Genk II (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KRC Genk II at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Standard Liège II's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Standard Liège II's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for KRC Genk II, 0 for Standard Liège II and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2023, ended KRC Genk II 2–2 Standard Liège II — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Standard Liège II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 61% and Standard Liège II 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (KRC Genk II 65% | Standard Liège II 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.66 xG and Standard Liège II 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.927 / defence 1.171 | Standard Liège II attack 0.782 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.453. Standard Liège II's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing KRC Genk II's projected output up. Standard Liège II's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 22 games and Standard Liège II's last 22.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 45% | Draw 24% | Standard Liège II 31%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.22 | Draw 4.16 | Standard Liège II 3.24. KRC Genk II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KRC Genk II as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 50% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liège II 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 March 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 45% | Draw 24% | Standard Liège II 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.66 / Standard Liège II 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.927 / def 1.171 | Standard Liège II attack 0.782 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Standard Liège II xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
KRC Genk II 1 - 1 Standard Liège II.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II part of?
KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 45% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.93) and Standard Liège II's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Standard Liège II's attack (0.78x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 22 games and Standard Liège II's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.16
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.99
1.33
Standard Liège II xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
6%
16.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.33 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 6W 5D 12L from 23 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Standard Liège II, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 11L across 23 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for KRC Genk II against 0.96 for Standard Liège II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 3W 3D 5L from their last 11 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liège II's away record stands at 3W 2D 6L across their last 11 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 1.13 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Standard Liège II in 61%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
KRC Genk II (Home) vs Standard Liège II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
❓ KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Standard Liège II away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.09 PPG; Standard Liège II away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
4
Draws
1
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 1, Standard Liège II have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2024: KRC Genk II 1-0 Standard Liège II.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 54%, Standard Liège II 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (KRC Genk II) and 54% (Standard Liège II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 36% of games; Standard Liège II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 46% of Standard Liège II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of KRC Genk II's matches and 54% of Standard Liège II's.
Do KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 82% of Standard Liège II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Relegation Round - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.66 xG and Standard Liège II 1.33 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Standard Liège II attack 0.78 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 45% | Draw 24% | Standard Liège II 31%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 65%, Standard Liège II 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liège II's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.00 PPG, Standard Liège II 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.