K. Lierse S.K. 0-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. host Zulte Waregem at AsterX Group-f Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AsterX Group-f Arena, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 2.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, Zulte Waregem 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Zulte Waregem trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 63% and Zulte Waregem 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 67% | Zulte Waregem 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.08 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.004 / defence 0.931 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.090 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.410. Data: 51 K. Lierse S.K. games / 50 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 28% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 45%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Zulte Waregem 2.22. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AsterX Group-f Arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 28% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.08 / Zulte Waregem 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.004 / def 0.931 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.090 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Zulte Waregem xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 28% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 2W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.00x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
28%
3.52
27%
3.75
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.51
1.43
Zulte Waregem xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.43 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 11D 22L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 29W 11D 11L from 51 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zulte Waregem are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against K. Lierse S.K..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (11W 5D 10L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 17W 5D 4L from 26 away games — 2.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.86 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 18W 11D 22L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 29W 11D 11L in their last 51 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.46 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Zulte Waregem won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — K. Lierse S.K. at 69%, Zulte Waregem at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for K. Lierse S.K. and 65% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 62% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at K. Lierse S.K.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem finished level at 0-0 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.08 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.43 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 28% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 45%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 67%, Zulte Waregem 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.