K. Lierse S.K. 2-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as K. Lierse S.K. welcome SK Beveren to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K. at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — K. Lierse S.K. at 1.10 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SK Beveren in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 64% and SK Beveren 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 56% | SK Beveren 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 xG and SK Beveren 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.824 / defence 1.228 | SK Beveren attack 1.126 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.203. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 K. Lierse S.K. games / 25 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 26% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 50%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | SK Beveren 2.00. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 60% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 26% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 / SK Beveren 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.824 / def 1.228 | SK Beveren attack 1.126 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.66
SK Beveren xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
K. Lierse S.K. 2 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 26% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 0.82x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
26%
3.83
24%
4.11
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.80
1.66
SK Beveren xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
5%
20.18
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.66 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 8D 10L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.16 PPG, SK Beveren on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.58 points per game from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.76 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SK Beveren in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 11W 5D 9L in their last 25 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.33 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
9
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, SK Beveren have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 58%, SK Beveren 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for K. Lierse S.K. and 75% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 58% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 75% of SK Beveren's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat SK Beveren 2-0 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 xG and SK Beveren 1.66 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against SK Beveren attack 1.13 / defence 1.36, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 26% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 50%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 56%, SK Beveren 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.16 PPG, SK Beveren 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.