K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as K. Lierse S.K. welcome SK Beveren to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. K. Lierse S.K. have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 3W 0D 2L from 5 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — K. Lierse S.K. at 1.40 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, SK Beveren in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 80% and SK Beveren 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 60% | SK Beveren 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.65 xG and SK Beveren 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.385 / defence 1.019 | SK Beveren attack 1.311 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.504. K. Lierse S.K. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 K. Lierse S.K. games / 5 SK Beveren games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 30% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 44%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | SK Beveren 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 80% | SK Beveren 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 30% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 73% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.65 / SK Beveren 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.385 / def 1.019 | SK Beveren attack 1.311 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
2.01
SK Beveren xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
K. Lierse S.K. 2 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 30% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.39x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
30%
3.37
27%
3.77
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.66
2.01
SK Beveren xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
13%
7.45
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
4%
25.14
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 2.01 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
9
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, SK Beveren have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 80%, SK Beveren 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for K. Lierse S.K. and 60% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 40% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 60% of SK Beveren's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat SK Beveren 2-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.65 xG and SK Beveren 2.01 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.39 / defence 1.02 against SK Beveren attack 1.31 / defence 1.07, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 30% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 44%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 60%, SK Beveren 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with K. Lierse S.K. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.