Francs Borains 0-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Urbain plays host to Francs Borains versus Lommel United in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 23 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Francs Borains have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Francs Borains have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Robert Urbain — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lommel United (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Francs Borains, 3 for Lommel United and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Francs Borains goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 58% versus Lommel United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 61% | Lommel United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.77 xG and Lommel United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 1.115 / defence 0.919 | Lommel United attack 1.138 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.296. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Francs Borains's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Francs Borains games / 31 Lommel United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 47% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 29%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Lommel United 3.45. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Francs Borains at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 70% | Lommel United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 47% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Francs Borains 1.77 / Lommel United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 1.115 / def 0.919 | Lommel United attack 1.138 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lommel United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Lommel United kick off?
Francs Borains vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Lommel United?
Francs Borains 0 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is Francs Borains vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Lommel United part of?
Francs Borains vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 47% chance of winning, Lommel United a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Francs Borains and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Lommel United?
Record (4 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are Francs Borains and Lommel United in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Francs Borains's attack at 1.11x the league average against Lommel United's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.14x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.31
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
3.13
1.35
Lommel United xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
5%
19.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.35 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 5D 16L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United's form line: 9W 7D 15L from 31 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.10 for Lommel United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (4W 2D 9L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 6W 2D 7L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.26 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 10W 5D 16L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.93 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
4
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, Lommel United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lommel United 3-1 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 67%, Lommel United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Francs Borains and 67% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Francs Borains's games and 53% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Francs Borains's matches and 67% of Lommel United's.
Do Francs Borains and Lommel United tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains and Lommel United finished level at 0-0 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.77 xG and Lommel United 1.35 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Lommel United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Lommel United attack 1.14 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 47% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 29%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 61%, Lommel United 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lommel United's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.13 PPG, Lommel United 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.