Deinze 4-1 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deinze at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs Standard Liège II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Standard Liège II at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Dakota Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Standard Liège II — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Standard Liège II have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deinze at 0.80 PPG versus Standard Liège II's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Deinze in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Standard Liège II in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 50% and Standard Liège II 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 50% | Standard Liège II 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.50 xG and Standard Liège II 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.081 / defence 0.964 | Standard Liège II attack 0.696 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.515. Data: 38 Deinze games / 10 Standard Liège II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 46% | Draw 30% | Standard Liège II 24%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Standard Liège II 4.17. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 70% | Standard Liège II 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 46% | Draw 30% | Standard Liège II 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Deinze 1.50 / Standard Liège II 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.081 / def 0.964 | Standard Liège II attack 0.696 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Deinze (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Standard Liège II xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Standard Liège II kick off?
Deinze vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Standard Liège II?
Deinze 4 - 1 Standard Liège II.
Where is Deinze vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Standard Liège II part of?
Deinze vs Standard Liège II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 46% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Deinze and Standard Liège II will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Standard Liège II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deinze and Standard Liège II in?
Deinze (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Standard Liège II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Deinze's attack at 1.08x the league average against Standard Liège II's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liège II's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.30
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.51
1.02
Standard Liège II xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
5%
18.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Deinze and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Deinze and 1.02 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Standard Liège II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deinze come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 2D 6L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Standard Liège II sit at 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deinze on 0.80 PPG, Standard Liège II on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Deinze's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Deinze are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Standard Liège II have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 1.30 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liège II in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Standard Liège II away?
Deinze's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.40 PPG; Standard Liège II away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Standard Liège II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Deinze won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Standard Liège II specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Deinze
0
Draws
1
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Standard Liège II?
From 6 meetings on record, Deinze have won 5, Standard Liège II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Standard Liège II last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2023, when Deinze 2-1 Standard Liège II.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Standard Liège II?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 60%, Standard Liège II 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Deinze) and 40% (Standard Liège II).
On the defensive side: Standard Liège II in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Standard Liège II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Deinze's recent matches and 40% of Standard Liège II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deinze vs Standard Liège II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Deinze's recent games and 40% of Standard Liège II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deinze and Standard Liège II tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Standard Liège II in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Deinze run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Standard Liège II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Standard Liège II 4-1 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.50 xG and Standard Liège II 1.02 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Standard Liège II attack 0.70 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 46% | Draw 30% | Standard Liège II 24%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 50%, Standard Liège II 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liège II's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 0.80 PPG, Standard Liège II 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.