Deinze 3-2 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Lommel United — this Deinze vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Lommel United at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Deinze — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Deinze's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lommel United away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deinze at 1.50 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Deinze's games and 60% of Lommel United's (from Deinze's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Lommel United have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Deinze.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Deinze 0–1 Lommel United — a Lommel United win.
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 60% versus Lommel United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 60% | Lommel United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.75 xG and Lommel United 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.314 / defence 1.013 | Lommel United attack 1.103 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.325. Deinze carry an above-average attack rating of 1.314 — their 1.75 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Deinze's last 50 games and Lommel United's last 50.
Result probabilities: Deinze 44% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 33%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.27 | Draw 4.33 | Lommel United 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Deinze's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Deinze 80% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 44% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Deinze 1.75 / Lommel United 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.314 / def 1.013 | Lommel United attack 1.103 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Deinze (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Lommel United xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United FAQs
What time does Deinze vs Lommel United kick off?
Deinze vs Lommel United kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Deinze 3 - 2 Lommel United.
Where is Deinze vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Lommel United part of?
Deinze vs Lommel United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 44% chance of winning, Lommel United a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Deinze and Lommel United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deinze vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.31) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deinze's last 50 games and Lommel United's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
44%
2.27
23%
4.33
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.23
1.48
Lommel United xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
6%
17.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Deinze and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Deinze and 1.48 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 29W 9D 22L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Lommel United's form line: 30W 10D 20L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deinze on 1.60 PPG, Lommel United on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 14W 6D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.65 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Current Season
Lommel United
Current Season
Deinze (Home) vs Lommel United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deinze
Current Season
Lommel United
Current Season
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United Form FAQs
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 30W 10D 20L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Lommel United away?
Deinze's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.90 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Deinze or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lommel United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won Deinze 3-0 Lommel United.
Deinze's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Deinze
3
Draws
5
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Deinze have won 2, Lommel United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Lommel United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2024: Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 73%, Lommel United at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Deinze and 70% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deinze and Lommel United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Deinze's games and 57% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Deinze and Lommel United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Deinze's matches and 70% of Lommel United's.
Do Deinze and Lommel United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Deinze's recent matches and 77% of Lommel United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out Lommel United 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Lommel United 3-2 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.75 xG and Lommel United 1.48 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.31 / defence 1.01 against Lommel United attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 44% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 33%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 60%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.60 PPG, Lommel United 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.