Deinze 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Deinze welcome KRC Genk II to Dakota Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deinze — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze's home record at Dakota Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KRC Genk II stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Deinze) versus 1.30 (KRC Genk II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Deinze, 2 for KRC Genk II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with KRC Genk II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 62% and KRC Genk II 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 62% | KRC Genk II 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 2.02 xG and KRC Genk II 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.114 / defence 0.976 | KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.327. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Deinze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Deinze games / 37 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 54% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 24%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 4.17. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deinze as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 90% | KRC Genk II 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 54% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Deinze 2.02 / KRC Genk II 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.114 / def 0.976 | KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Deinze (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.30
KRC Genk II xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Deinze vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Deinze 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Deinze vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs KRC Genk II part of?
Deinze vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 54% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Deinze and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and KRC Genk II?
Record (6 meetings): Deinze 3W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 2W.
What form are Deinze and KRC Genk II in?
Deinze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.11) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.48
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.32
1.30
KRC Genk II xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
13%
7.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
3%
31.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Deinze and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Deinze and 1.30 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 19W 8D 10L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
KRC Genk II's form line: 13W 7D 17L from 37 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Deinze are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 5W 4D 9L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deinze are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.54 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 70%.
Last 37 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 13W 7D 17L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or KRC Genk II away?
Deinze's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.78 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Deinze or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deinze's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Deinze
1
Draws
2
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and KRC Genk II?
From 7 meetings on record, Deinze have won 4, KRC Genk II have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2024, when Deinze 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and KRC Genk II?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 72%, KRC Genk II at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Deinze and 72% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Deinze's games and 78% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Deinze's matches and 72% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Deinze and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 2.02 xG and KRC Genk II 1.30 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deinze fell 1.0 short of their projected output. KRC Genk II landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 54% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 24%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 62%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.