Club Brugge II 0-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Club Brugge II face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The NEST plays host to Club Brugge II versus Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Club Brugge II (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Club Brugge II at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Patro Eisden's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Patro Eisden's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Club Brugge II, 1.80 for Patro Eisden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Club Brugge II, 1 for Patro Eisden and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Club Brugge II 2–2 Patro Eisden — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Club Brugge II half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge II 56% versus Patro Eisden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge II 64% | Patro Eisden 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge II 1.07 xG and Patro Eisden 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge II attack 0.945 / defence 1.072 | Patro Eisden attack 1.154 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.344. Data: built from Club Brugge II's last 52 games and Patro Eisden's last 52.
Result probabilities: Club Brugge II 24% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 50%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge II 4.18 | Draw 3.90 | Patro Eisden 1.98. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Club Brugge II's last 10 home games and Patro Eisden's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Club Brugge II 40% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: The NEST • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge II 24% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Club Brugge II 1.07 / Patro Eisden 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge II attack 0.945 / def 1.072 | Patro Eisden attack 1.154 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Club Brugge II xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Patro Eisden xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at The NEST.
What was the final score in Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Club Brugge II 0 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at The NEST.
What competition is Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden part of?
Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge II a 24% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Club Brugge II's attack at 0.94x the league average against Patro Eisden's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (1.15x) against Club Brugge II's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from Club Brugge II's last 52 games and Patro Eisden's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
24%
4.18
26%
3.90
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Club Brugge II xG
Total xG
2.74
1.66
Patro Eisden xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
5%
22.05
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Club Brugge II and 1.66 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Club Brugge II's recent record stands at 21W 8D 23L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 11L across 52 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Club Brugge II against 1.71 for Patro Eisden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Club Brugge II have managed 9W 4D 12L from their last 25 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 10W 11D 4L across their last 25 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Club Brugge II are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.62 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge II
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
Club Brugge II (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Club Brugge II
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Club Brugge II have gone 21W 8D 23L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 24W 17D 11L in their last 52 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge II at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge II at home: 1.24 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Club Brugge II or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge II have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Patro Eisden won Patro Eisden 4-0 Club Brugge II on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Club Brugge II have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Club Brugge II
2
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Club Brugge II have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Patro Eisden 1-2 Club Brugge II.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge II 48%, Patro Eisden 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Club Brugge II) and 40% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 52%; Club Brugge II have failed to score in 36% of games; Patro Eisden in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge II home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 40% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Club Brugge II's recent games and 40% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Club Brugge II and Patro Eisden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 60% of Patro Eisden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Club Brugge II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Club Brugge II 0-1 at The NEST, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 1.07 xG and Patro Eisden 1.66 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Club Brugge II fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Patro Eisden attack 1.15 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 24% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 50%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 64%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge II's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Club Brugge II 1.37 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.