AS Eupen 3-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KRC Genk II at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kehrwegstadion plays host to AS Eupen versus KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Eupen have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. AS Eupen have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Eupen have posted 3W 2D 5L at Kehrwegstadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
KRC Genk II (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, KRC Genk II are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
AS Eupen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 46% versus KRC Genk II 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 51% | KRC Genk II 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.49 xG and KRC Genk II 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.922 / defence 1.330 | KRC Genk II attack 1.095 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.417. Data: 5 AS Eupen games / 35 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 27% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 51%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 1.96. KRC Genk II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KRC Genk II as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 40% | KRC Genk II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 27% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG AS Eupen 1.49 / KRC Genk II 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.922 / def 1.330 | KRC Genk II attack 1.095 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
2.06
KRC Genk II xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II kick off?
AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II?
AS Eupen 3 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II part of?
AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 27% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both AS Eupen and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and KRC Genk II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and KRC Genk II in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (1.09x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
27%
3.64
22%
4.59
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.55
2.06
KRC Genk II xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
3%
28.68
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for AS Eupen and 2.06 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 6W 4D 25L from 35 games, a 0.63 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Eupen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 16L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours KRC Genk II by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 4W 3D 10L from 17 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AS Eupen are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.57 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 71%.
Last 35 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 6W 4D 25L in their last 35 games (0.63 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or KRC Genk II away?
KRC Genk II's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.88 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
1
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and KRC Genk II?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 2, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 2-0 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and KRC Genk II?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for AS Eupen, 76% for KRC Genk II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AS Eupen) and 71% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of AS Eupen's games and 76% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of AS Eupen's matches and 71% of KRC Genk II's.
Do AS Eupen and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat KRC Genk II 3-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.49 xG and KRC Genk II 2.06 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.92 / defence 1.33 against KRC Genk II attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 27% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 51%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual AS Eupen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 51%, KRC Genk II 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KRC Genk II arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with AS Eupen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.