WSG Wattens 1-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — WSG Wattens at 1.30 PPG versus Wolfsberger AC's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 57% and Wolfsberger AC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (WSG Wattens 70% | Wolfsberger AC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.68 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.013 / defence 1.099 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.039 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.287. Data: 27 WSG Wattens games / 27 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 43% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 34%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Wolfsberger AC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 50% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 43% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG WSG Wattens 1.68 / Wolfsberger AC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.013 / def 1.099 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.039 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wolfsberger AC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
WSG Wattens 1 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 43% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (1.01) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.25
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.15
1.47
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.47 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 13W 8D 16L from 37 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 16L across 37 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.27 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 7W 6D 5L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.46 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 7D 16L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.50 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 61%, Wolfsberger AC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for WSG Wattens and 72% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of WSG Wattens's games and 61% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of WSG Wattens's matches and 72% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat WSG Wattens 1-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.68 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 43% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 34%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 70%, Wolfsberger AC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.27 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.