WSG Wattens 2-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 2L across 9 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 1D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.11 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.40 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 61% and Sturm Graz 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (WSG Wattens 61% | Sturm Graz 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.097 / defence 1.150 | Sturm Graz attack 1.024 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.357. Data: 18 WSG Wattens games / 18 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 40%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 78% | Sturm Graz 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG WSG Wattens 1.48 / Sturm Graz 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.097 / def 1.150 | Sturm Graz attack 1.024 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Sturm Graz xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
WSG Wattens 2 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.10x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
35%
2.83
24%
4.09
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.08
1.60
Sturm Graz xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.60 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 7D 7L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 9W 4D 5L from 18 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.06 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.22 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 78%, Sturm Graz at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for WSG Wattens and 78% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of WSG Wattens's games and 67% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of WSG Wattens's matches and 78% of Sturm Graz's.
Do WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz finished level at 2-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.60 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Sturm Graz attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 40%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 61%, Sturm Graz 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.