WSG Wattens 1-5 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Grazer AK meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's home record at Tivoli Stadion Tirol: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for WSG Wattens, 1.40 for Grazer AK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: WSG Wattens 1W, Grazer AK 1W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with WSG Wattens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus Grazer AK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 51% | Grazer AK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.983 / defence 0.927 | Grazer AK attack 0.809 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 21%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Grazer AK 4.76. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 60% | Grazer AK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 24 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG WSG Wattens 1.51 / Grazer AK 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.983 / def 0.927 | Grazer AK attack 0.809 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Grazer AK xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
WSG Wattens 1 - 5 Grazer AK.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK part of?
WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK is a Relegation Group - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 52% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both WSG Wattens and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
Record (6 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 4 | Grazer AK 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.98x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.81x) against WSG Wattens's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.64
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.37
0.86
Grazer AK xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 0.86 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 16D 24L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grazer AK's form line: 10W 21D 24L from 55 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.93 for Grazer AK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L).
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 3W 10D 14L from 27 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.05 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 15W 16D 24L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 10W 21D 24L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Grazer AK away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.26 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Grazer AK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grazer AK won 1-5 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
3
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
From 8 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Grazer AK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 52%, Grazer AK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (WSG Wattens) and 56% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 30% of games; Grazer AK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of WSG Wattens's games and 59% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 56% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Grazer AK tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grazer AK run riot with a 1-5 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat WSG Wattens 1-5 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 0.86 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Grazer AK outscored their 0.86 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Grazer AK attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 21%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Grazer AK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 51%, Grazer AK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.11 PPG, Grazer AK 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.