WSG Wattens 1-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 35%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Austria Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Austria Vienna are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Austria Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Austria Vienna winning.
It is worth noting that Austria Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 54% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Austria Vienna 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.848 / defence 1.203 | Austria Vienna attack 0.997 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Vienna 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 50% | Austria Vienna 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG WSG Wattens 1.22 / Austria Vienna 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.848 / def 1.203 | Austria Vienna attack 0.997 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
WSG Wattens 1 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.85x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.32
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.44
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.22 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 16W 12D 31L from 59 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 17L across 59 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 7W 8D 14L from 29 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.54 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 16W 12D 31L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 23W 19D 17L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.24 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Austria Vienna 0-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 59%, Austria Vienna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (WSG Wattens) and 59% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of WSG Wattens's games and 62% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 59% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out Austria Vienna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Austria Vienna 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 35%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Austria Vienna 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.