WSG Wattens 0-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 45%, yet in-form Austria Lustenau provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Austria Lustenau travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Austria Lustenau are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for WSG Wattens, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with WSG Wattens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 60% versus Austria Lustenau 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 64% | Austria Lustenau 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.48 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.930 / defence 1.233 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.696 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 22 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 45% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 29%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Lustenau 3.45. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 40% | Austria Lustenau 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 45% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG WSG Wattens 1.48 / Austria Lustenau 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.930 / def 1.233 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.696 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Austria Lustenau xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Austria Lustenau.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 45% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
Record (2 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.93x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.87
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.62
1.15
Austria Lustenau xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.15 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 5D 11L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.28 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 4W 3D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.28 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Lustenau away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.25 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
1
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when WSG Wattens 0-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 50%, Austria Lustenau 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (WSG Wattens) and 42% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games; Austria Lustenau in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 42% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Lustenau cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.48 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.15 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Austria Lustenau outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 45% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 29%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Austria Lustenau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 64%, Austria Lustenau 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.28 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Lustenau win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.