WSG Wattens 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 2W 5D 1L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (WSG Wattens) versus 1.40 (Austria Klagenfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for WSG Wattens, 1 for Austria Klagenfurt and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 69% and Austria Klagenfurt 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 62% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.82 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.291 / defence 1.193 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.905 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.336. WSG Wattens carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 WSG Wattens games / 16 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 46% | Draw 24% | Austria Klagenfurt 30%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.33. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 88% | Austria Klagenfurt 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 46% | Draw 24% | Austria Klagenfurt 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG WSG Wattens 1.82 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.291 / def 1.193 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.905 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Austria Klagenfurt xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt?
WSG Wattens 0 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 46% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (1 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 0 | Austria Klagenfurt 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.29x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.19
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.26
1.44
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.44 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 7D 5L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.19 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
WSG Wattens's home form reads 2W 5D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.56 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.38 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
WSG Wattens have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when WSG Wattens won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
1
Draws
5
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 4, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 1-4 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 88%, Austria Klagenfurt at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 62% (Austria Klagenfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of WSG Wattens's games and 62% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of WSG Wattens's matches and 62% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat WSG Wattens 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat WSG Wattens 0-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.82 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.44 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. WSG Wattens fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.29 / defence 1.19 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 46% | Draw 24% | Austria Klagenfurt 30%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Austria Klagenfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 62%, Austria Klagenfurt 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.19 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.