WSG Wattens 1-1 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as WSG Wattens welcome Admira Wacker to Tivoli Stadion Tirol. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 0.71 xG and Admira Wacker 3.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Admira Wacker attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 3.069. Data: 0 WSG Wattens games / 0 Admira Wacker games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 4% | Draw 14% | Admira Wacker 81%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 25.00 | Draw 7.14 | Admira Wacker 1.23. The model has a clear lean to Admira Wacker (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Admira Wacker at 81% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 4% | Draw 14% | Admira Wacker 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 50% | xG WSG Wattens 0.71 / Admira Wacker 3.00 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Admira Wacker attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 3.069 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
3.00
Admira Wacker xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 Admira Wacker.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker part of?
WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 4% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 81% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.85) and Admira Wacker's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 3.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-4 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
4%
23.53
14%
7.00
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.71
3.00
Admira Wacker xG
23.53
4%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
5%
20.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 3.00 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Admira Wacker?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Pre-Season
Admira Wacker
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
0
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens and Admira Wacker finished level at 1-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 0.71 xG and Admira Wacker 3.00 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Admira Wacker landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Admira Wacker attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 4% | Draw 14% | Admira Wacker 81%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.