Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wolfsberger AC face Austria Lustenau.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Lustenau make the trip to Lavanttal Arena to face Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Wolfsberger AC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wolfsberger AC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 2 for Austria Lustenau and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Wolfsberger AC 3–2 Austria Lustenau — a Wolfsberger AC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 59% versus Austria Lustenau 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | Austria Lustenau 51%). Note also that Austria Lustenau surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Wolfsberger AC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.092 / defence 1.070 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.866 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Austria Lustenau's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wolfsberger AC's projected output up. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and Austria Lustenau's last 44.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 25% | Austria Lustenau 18%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.73 | Draw 4.07 | Austria Lustenau 5.71. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 40% (last 10 home games) | Austria Lustenau 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 25% | Austria Lustenau 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.86 / Austria Lustenau 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.092 / def 1.070 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.866 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau FAQs
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 58% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Austria Lustenau's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.87x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and Austria Lustenau's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.07
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.80
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
36.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.94 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 15D 24L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 13W 17D 29L from 59 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 0.95 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.03 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 7D 15L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 6W 12D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.12 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Wolfsberger AC (Home) vs Austria Lustenau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau Form FAQs
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.03 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
3
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Austria Lustenau 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 67%, Austria Lustenau 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Wolfsberger AC) and 40% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 47% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 40% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 53% of Austria Lustenau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lavanttal Arena, Relegation Round - 5, as Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 25% | Austria Lustenau 18%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 61%, Austria Lustenau 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.27 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.