TSV Hartberg 0-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Wolfsberger AC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 4, Wolfsberger AC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 3–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 58% versus Wolfsberger AC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 58% | Wolfsberger AC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.891 / defence 0.972 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.506 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.192. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.506 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 TSV Hartberg games / 41 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 40%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Wolfsberger AC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
TSV Hartberg dominate the H2H record, yet Wolfsberger AC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Wolfsberger AC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.53 / Wolfsberger AC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.891 / def 0.972 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.506 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 4W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.89x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.51
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
5%
18.38
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.75 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 17W 16D 19L from 52 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 17L across 52 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.29 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 9W 7D 9L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.58 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 16D 19L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.36 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, Wolfsberger AC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (TSV Hartberg) and 56% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 32%; Wolfsberger AC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 48% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 56% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.51 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 40%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 58%, Wolfsberger AC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.29 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.