TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sturm Graz's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against TSV Hartberg's 0 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Sturm Graz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Sturm Graz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.902 / defence 0.890 | Sturm Graz attack 1.098 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | Sturm Graz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 31 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.23 / Sturm Graz 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.902 / def 0.890 | Sturm Graz attack 1.098 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 4 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Group - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 38% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Record (8 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 3 | Sturm Graz 5W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.40
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.35
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.12 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 20W 23D 19L from 62 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 15L across 62 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 10D 10L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 17W 6D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.79 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 23D 19L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 33W 14D 15L in their last 62 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.33 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.90 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 63%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (TSV Hartberg) and 60% (Sturm Graz).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of TSV Hartberg's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 60% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 2-4 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Sturm Graz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.