TSV Hartberg 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. TSV Hartberg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SCR Altach (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. SCR Altach haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SCR Altach arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 59% versus SCR Altach 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 47% | SCR Altach 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.67 xG and SCR Altach 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.938 / defence 1.032 | SCR Altach attack 0.922 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.076. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 SCR Altach games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 21%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | SCR Altach 4.76. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SCR Altach (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 50% | SCR Altach 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.67 / SCR Altach 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.938 / def 1.032 | SCR Altach attack 0.922 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
SCR Altach xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 50% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.94) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.92x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.50
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.69
1.02
SCR Altach xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
4%
25.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.02 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 12D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. TSV Hartberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.91 PPG from 32 outings (7W 8D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. SCR Altach haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.91 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 3W 6D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (5W 2D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.75 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Pre-Season
SCR Altach
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 12D 13L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 7W 8D 17L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
SCR Altach's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.94 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 4, SCR Altach have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, SCR Altach 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (TSV Hartberg) and 62% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 31%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 31% of games; SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 31% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 62% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out SCR Altach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 2-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.67 xG and SCR Altach 1.02 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 21%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 47%, SCR Altach 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.03 PPG, SCR Altach 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.