TSV Hartberg 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 6 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 1W 2D 2L from 5 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 5W 0D 0L from 5 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 80% and Red Bull Salzburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 0.89 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.771 / defence 1.258 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.991 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.253. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 TSV Hartberg games / 5 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 5.56 | Draw 3.03 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.00. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 80% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG TSV Hartberg 0.89 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.771 / def 1.258 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.991 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Red Bull Salzburg xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 18% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 50% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 5W-0D-0L in 5 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.77x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
18%
5.62
33%
3.06
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.45
1.56
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.62
18%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
4%
26.76
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.56 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 3.00 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Red Bull Salzburg in 60%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 (3.00 PPG).
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 80%, Red Bull Salzburg at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (TSV Hartberg) and 60% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of TSV Hartberg's games and 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 0.89 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 40%, Red Bull Salzburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. TSV Hartberg managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Red Bull Salzburg managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.