TSV Hartberg 2-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 37%, yet in-form Lask Linz provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Hartberg plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lask Linz arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Lask Linz hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Lask Linz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Lask Linz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 48% | Lask Linz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / defence 0.824 | Lask Linz attack 0.941 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.332. Data: 37 TSV Hartberg games / 37 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 34%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Lask Linz 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lask Linz (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | Lask Linz 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.10 / Lask Linz 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / def 0.824 | Lask Linz attack 0.941 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lask Linz xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 37% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 3 | Lask Linz 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (0.94x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.37
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.13
1.03
Lask Linz xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.03 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 17W 15D 16L from 48 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 25W 7D 16L across 48 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.71 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 11W 2D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 25W 7D 16L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.36 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.59 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 64%, Lask Linz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (TSV Hartberg) and 54% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of TSV Hartberg's games and 50% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 54% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.03 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Lask Linz attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 34%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 48%, Lask Linz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.38 PPG, Lask Linz 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.