TSV Hartberg 0-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lask Linz arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lask Linz in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: TSV Hartberg 0W, Lask Linz 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 59% versus Lask Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Lask Linz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / defence 1.072 | Lask Linz attack 1.050 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 35%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Lask Linz 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.31 / Lask Linz 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / def 1.072 | Lask Linz attack 1.050 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lask Linz xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 33% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Record (3 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 1 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.84x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.05x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
33%
3.01
32%
3.13
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.35
Lask Linz xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.35 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 19W 15D 22L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 17L across 56 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.59 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.32 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.46 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 61%, Lask Linz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of TSV Hartberg's games and 57% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.35 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 35%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Lask Linz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.29 PPG, Lask Linz 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.