TSV Hartberg 0-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PROfertil ARENA.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Lask Linz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 62% | Lask Linz 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG and Lask Linz 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.093 / defence 0.962 | Lask Linz attack 1.024 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.250. Data: 40 TSV Hartberg games / 40 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 40% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 31%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Lask Linz 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 40% | Lask Linz 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 40% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.42 / Lask Linz 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.093 / def 0.962 | Lask Linz attack 1.024 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lask Linz xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 40% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.09x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.02x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.52
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.23
Lask Linz xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.23 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 17W 11D 22L from 50 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 9L across 50 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 5D 10L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 8W 12D 5L across 25 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.60 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 23W 18D 9L in their last 50 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.40 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.44 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 52%, Lask Linz 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (TSV Hartberg) and 36% (Lask Linz).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of TSV Hartberg's games and 64% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 36% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at TSV Hartberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz finished level at 0-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG and Lask Linz 1.23 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lask Linz landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Lask Linz attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 40% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 31%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 62%, Lask Linz 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lask Linz's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.