Sturm Graz 3-3 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Lask Linz at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 1D 2L at Merkur Arena — 1.86 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Lask Linz trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 69% and Lask Linz 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 85% | Lask Linz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.57 xG and Lask Linz 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.028 / defence 1.206 | Lask Linz attack 0.813 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.309. Lask Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Sturm Graz games / 14 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 30%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Lask Linz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 57% | Lask Linz 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Sturm Graz 1.57 / Lask Linz 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.028 / def 1.206 | Lask Linz attack 0.813 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lask Linz xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz 3 - 3 Lask Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 43% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sturm Graz and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.58
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.86
1.28
Lask Linz xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.28 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 2D 4L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 0.77 PPG from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sturm Graz's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Lask Linz in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Lask Linz away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.00 PPG; Lask Linz away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Lask Linz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 40%, Lask Linz 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sturm Graz and 40% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sturm Graz's games and 80% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sturm Graz's matches and 40% of Lask Linz's.
Do Sturm Graz and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Sturm Graz and Lask Linz drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.57 xG and Lask Linz 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Lask Linz attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 30%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 85%, Lask Linz 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.