Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Lask Linz at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 3D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.90 PPG versus Lask Linz's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lask Linz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Lask Linz have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 56% | Lask Linz 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.965 / defence 0.929 | Lask Linz attack 1.123 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 33%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Lask Linz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sturm Graz 1.31 / Lask Linz 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.965 / def 0.929 | Lask Linz attack 1.123 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lask Linz xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is a Championship Group - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 38% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sturm Graz and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Record (9 meetings): Sturm Graz 5W | Draws 2 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.51
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.50
1.20
Lask Linz xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.20 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz come into this having played 59 games, going 33W 11D 15L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.73 PPG from 59 outings (30W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.86 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sturm Graz's home form reads 16W 6D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.52 points per game from 29 outings (13W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.61 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 33W 11D 15L in their last 59 games (1.86 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Lask Linz away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.86 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Lask Linz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 55%, Lask Linz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sturm Graz) and 62% (Lask Linz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sturm Graz's games and 62% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sturm Graz's matches and 62% of Lask Linz's.
Do Sturm Graz and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 28, as Sturm Graz and Lask Linz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.20 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 33%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Lask Linz 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.86 PPG, Lask Linz 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.