Sturm Graz 2-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 12 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games (1.83 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Merkur Arena this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.83 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merkur Arena this season.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 2W 2D 2L across 6 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.17. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Sturm Graz's favour (1.83 vs 1.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Austria Klagenfurt in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%.
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 100% and Austria Klagenfurt 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 83% | Austria Klagenfurt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.03 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.208 / defence 1.321 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.729 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.330. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Sturm Graz games / 6 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 27% | Austria Klagenfurt 21%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Klagenfurt 4.76. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 100% | Austria Klagenfurt 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 27% | Austria Klagenfurt 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Sturm Graz 2.03 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.208 / def 1.321 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.729 / def 1.470 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Austria Klagenfurt xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz 2 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 52% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.73x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.69
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.31
1.28
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
3%
36.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.28 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Austria Klagenfurt's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.50 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.33 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
1
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Sturm Graz, 67% for Austria Klagenfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sturm Graz and 67% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sturm Graz's games and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sturm Graz's matches and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Austria Klagenfurt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.03 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.21 / defence 1.32 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.73 / defence 1.47, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 27% | Austria Klagenfurt 21%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 83%, Austria Klagenfurt 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 92%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.